CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: ALL THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS IN GROUP B
Champions League
Only a win will suffice for the Rossoneri against Liverpool at San Siro. However, even this may not be enough and so it will be necessary to keep an eye on the other game in Group B at the do Dragão, where Porto and Atlético will be facing off. Let's analyse all the possible outcomes on the last matchday of Group B in the Champions League.
AC MILAN QUALIFY FOR THE ROUND OF 16 IF...
Pioli's team must beat Liverpool at San Siro and simultaneously hope that Porto do not beat Atlético. A draw at the do Dragão and a Rossoneri win would see AC Milan go through to the Round of 16. If the Spaniards were to win, however, the new rules would come into play according to Article 17 (Equality of points-group stage) of the UEFA Champions League regulations. The first one concerns teams head to head record, in this case, the two sides are on a level playing field. Both teams have one win each as well as the same goal difference in the head to head matches (2-2, starting from this season the away goal rule is no longer valid).
Given the deadlock in this situation under the current rules, it would then go to overall goal difference, which currently favours AC Milan (-2 versus Atlético's -3). If the goal difference of both teams were to be the same by the end of the final matchday, then it would be decided by the overall goals scored in the group stages, with AC Milan currently on 5 and the Colchoneros on 4. But if this figure were to also be level by the end, then the new deciding factor would be the number of away goals scored in the group stages: a tally which AC Milan currently leads 3-2, but Atlético will have their trip to Porto to turn this around.
AC MILAN WILL GO INTO THE EUROPA LEAGUE IF...
The Rossoneri currently occupy the third position in Group B thanks to a better goal difference than Atlético. As a result, Milan will enter into the Europa League if they win against Liverpool but Porto also beat Atlético. In the event of Rossoneri and Atlético victories, we will need to look at the final goal difference of both sides, this is because if they win by a wide enough margin, the Colchoneros could overtake AC Milan even in the Rossoneri win at San Siro.
At the same time, a draw could also be enough for Europa League qualification in the face of two different scenarios in Porto. The first would be a victory for the hosts and the second, a draw between Porto and Atlético. The Rossoneri would end up in the Europa League even in case of a defeat against Liverpool and Atlético losing in Porto, but only if AC Milan's goal difference remained better than Atlético's.
AC MILAN WILL BE ELIMINATED IF...
In the case of a loss against Liverpool as well as Atlético also taking a least one point from the game against Porto. AC Milan would also be knocked out of the competition if they were to lose to Liverpool and Atlético also lost, in the scenario where the Rossoneri lose by two (or more) goals than the Spaniards, who would then make up the goal difference.
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