NEWCASTLE v AC MILAN: OPPONENT REVIEW

Win and hope. Stefano Pioli’s AC Milan don’t have any other options at St James’ Park in the final act of the Champions League group stages against Newcastle. A vital match for the Rossoneri, who can still harbour hope for qualification despite it not being in the Rossoneri’s hands anymore after the previous results in Group F. The Rossoneri land on English soil with several regrets from the first leg, when they drew 0-0 at San Siro despite taking 25 shots, the most any team has attempted in the competition this season without scoring. 

The Magpies are in a difficult period of their season, between injuries and inconsistent results but they can create problems for any opponent at their fortress, as shown in their 4-1 defeat of PSG. However, after having already lost one home match this season in the Champions League (against Borussia Dortmund), this could become the second tournament in which Newcastle suffer more than home defeat, having lost three in the 2002/03 season. 

HOWE MAKES USE OF HIS ENTIRE SQUAD, THEIR DEFENCE IS A STRONG POINT
Lots of solutions and lots of rotations: in the final match of Group F, AC Milan face one of the two teams who have used the most players in Europe’s top five leagues in 2023/24: 30 as of now for Newcastle (joint top with Real Betis). In this season’s Champions League, only four teams (Barcelona 23, Sevilla, Manchester United and Porto 24) have used more players than AC Milan and Newcastle (22). While both Howe and Pioli use a large number of players in the competition (often caused by the number of injuries), there’s one aspect of the Magpies that stands out from the others: a stout defence. 

Despite a few too many shaky moments in recent outings, Newcastle are solid: they have collected six clean sheets so far in the 23/24 Premier League, joint-first with Arsenal in the tournament, as well as only conceding 54 goals since the start of last season in England’s top division. Amongst teams in the league for both seasons, only Manchester City (51) have a better record. The figure that probably best explains the efficiency of Howe’s men in protecting results comes from this year’s Champions League, in which Newcastle have conceded the fewest goals in proportion to their Expected Goals conceded. They have conceded five goals from an xGA of 10.64, leaving a difference of -5.64, the greatest in the tournament. 

TRIPPIER A BEACON OF THE TEAM BUT POPE’S ABSENCE IS SIGNIFICANT
In a team rich with young and talented players, one of the key references is undoubtedly expert fullback, Kieran Trippier. The captain has proven to be key both on and off the pitch, acting as the glue in the dressing room for the team whilst consistently putting in high-level performances on the pitch. In fact no player in the Premier League has more assists than him (seven, with Pedro Neto and Mohammed Salah) and only Bruno Fernandes (47) has created more chances than him this season (45). He stands alone at the top of the list of touches in the Premier League with as many as 1604. 

Eddie Howe will be greatly missing goalkeeper Nick Pope, however, who is out with a long-term injury and has been a key part of that strong defensive outfit mentioned above. Not only has the Brit prevented the most xG this year in the Champions League (4.9, having conceded 5 goals from 9.9 xG), but he is also second in save percentage (83%) amongst goalkeepers with at least two appearances, behind only Yann Sommer (89%). This figure is even more significant considering that Pope is third in number of saves made (25) in the competition, behind only Glazer and Racioppi (31). 

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