AC MILAN v CAGLIARI: OPPONENT REVIEW

AC Milan are set to face Cagliari in the Coppa Italia. After six wins, a draw and just a single defeat against the Sardinians in Italy’s domestic cup competition, the Rossoneri will take to the pitch with a psychological advantage. This will only be reinforced by a solid defensive record: AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in six of their last eight meetings with Cagliari, conceding just two goals. This contrasts with the ten goals they shipped in the ten previous encounters. Furthermore, the Rossoneri have always got the better of the Rossoblù in Coppa Italia knockout ties: they did so in a straight knockout match in 1967 and then over two legs in both 1983 and 1992.

Cagliari, meanwhile, haven’t scored in their last three Coppa Italia meetings with AC Milan but beat Palermo and Udinese to reach this stage of the competition. The Sardinians are now looking to make it three consecutive wins in the Coppa Italia for the first time since they recorded a first-leg victory over Lazio at the round of 16 stage in 2005. However, in recent years, Cagliari have struggled defensively on the road in the competition: they’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 Coppa Italia away games and conceded at least one goal in each of the last eight of such fixtures.

HIGH PRESSING AND STRIKING LATE
Both teams like to adopt a direct approach: during the current Serie A season, AC Milan have launched 39 direct attacks compared to Cagliari’s tally of 34, placing both sides in the top four alongside Inter (39) and Sassuolo (37) in this regard. Furthermore, Cagliari have certainly shown proficiency in pressing: they’ve had 28 shots (and scored three goals) as a direct result of attacking recoveries, with only Napoli (35) having done better in 2023/24. Overall, the Sardinians have recovered possession 133 times in an attacking area of the pitch - the eighth highest figure in the division. This is further proof of how effective their game can be. However, when AC Milan and Cagliari met in Serie A earlier on in the season, the Rossoblù only managed to make four recoveries of this kind and have one effort at goal.

In addition, Cagliari have proven themselves to be strong on set-pieces: six of their last nine Coppa Italia goals have come from dead ball situations, including two out of four this season. Also worth pointing out is the fact that all of Cagliari’s last six goals in the competition arrived from the 80th minute onwards, highlighting the Rossoblù’s ability to strike at decisive moments when their opponents are fatigued or switch off. It’s been a common theme this campaign: the Sardinians have scored 50% of their goals from the 76th minute onwards (eight out of 16), the joint-highest percentage (alongside Roma) in Serie A. Through these goals in the final 15 minutes of play, Cagliari have gained six points; only Lecce and Roma have done better.

CAGLIARI’S ATTACKING THREATS
In attack, Zito Luvumbo is a player to keep an eye on. He scored when the two sides met earlier on this season and has frequently displayed his agility and ability to earn fouls, something which could prove to be decisive against the AC Milan backline. This Serie A season, he’s been on the end of 13 fouls in the final third, with only Dan Ndoye and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia having earned more. Out of all his teammates, he’s covered the most distance with the ball at his feet (1819 metres with movements covering at least five metres) and is also leading the way in terms of attempted dribbles: 46, 21 of which have been successful (Gaetano Oristanio has been more effective in this regard, completing 23 out of 40). The Angolan, who is ready to depart for the Africa Cup of Nations, is also the Cagliari player to have created the most chances from open play during the 2023/24 Serie A campaign (15).

Meanwhile, Andrea Petagna and Gianluca Lapadula used to play for AC Milan, making the game that bit more interesting. Having progressed through the Rossoneri youth ranks, Petagna and Lapadula (the latter of whom scored eight league goals for the Diavolo in 2016/17) will want to show what they can do against their former side. Finally, Nicolas Viola is a key figure in Cagliari’s attacking play: he’s created 19 chances, more than any other Rossoblù player, while only Luvumbo and Pavoletti have directly contributed to more league goals than the playmaker (two goals and an assist) this league campaign.

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