AC MILAN v ROMA: OPPONENT REVIEW

After being eliminated in the Coppa Italia against Atalanta, AC Milan host Roma at the San Siro in the Sunday Night fixture of Matchday 20, seeking a crucial victory to secure the third position in the table and continue their pursuit of qualifying for next season's Champions League. In the last seven Serie A matches, AC Milan has earned 16 points (5W, 1D, 1L), keeping four clean sheets during this period. Overall, only Inter and Juventus (each with 17 points) have gained more points than the Rossoneri in Serie A during this timeframe. On the other hand, Roma has won only one of their last five Serie A matches (2D, 2L), a 2-0 victory against Napoli on December 23, and a recent 1-1 draw against Atalanta.

Focusing on Roma's away performance, it becomes even more evident that José Mourinho's team struggles to keep up with those ahead in the standings. The side hailing from Italy's capital had suffered defeats (without scoring any goals) in the last two away Serie A games and could potentially record three consecutive losses on the road for the first time since September to October 2021. If they fail to find the net against AC Milan, it matches what the Romans did back in February-March 2005, when Luigi Delneri was in charge (three consecutive defeats without scoring). Additionally, Stefano Pioli's lads have a positive record in the last four Serie A home games, securing four victories with clean sheets, and they could maintain a clean sheet for five consecutive matches at the San Siro for the first time since March to May 2022.

ROMA: SOLID DEFENSE AND SECOND-HALF GOALS, KEYS TO MOURINHO'S TEAM                                                                           In the first half of this season, both AC Milan and Roma have demonstrated great effectiveness, especially in offensive play, ranking as the second and third-highest-scoring teams with 35 and 31 goals, respectively after leaders Inter (44). The Giallorossi, in particular, are the second-highest scorers in the second halves of Serie A matches (20 goals, equal to Atalanta), trailing only Inter with 24. Meanwhile, AC Milan is the team with the most goals in the first half of matches this current season (21). In addition to their goal-scoring prowess, José Mourinho's side has showcased defensive capabilities, having faced the fewest total shots in the league (185).

However, it's not all positive for the Giallorossi in the first 19 matchdays of the Serie A season. In the first half of the season, they exhibited several shortcomings in ball management, especially in their own half. Roma conceded 25 shots following a recovery by opponents in their half, second only to Frosinone (34), Salernitana, and Empoli (both 27), resulting in three goals, including the latest away goal against Juventus scored by Rabiot. On the other hand, Stefano Pioli's side is the team with the most direct vertical attacks this season (41) and they have scored two of their last three goals following this type of action.

LUKAKU, THE NUMBER 1 THREAT, AND THE EVER-PRESENT CRISTANTE                                                                                                   In the upcoming match against AC Milan, Roma will be without one of their most anticipated players, Paulo Dybala, who exited with an injury during the Coppa Italia derby. The Argentine has actively contributed to 12 goals against AC Milan in his Serie A career (seven goals and five assists) and is one of the three players, along with Felipe Anderson and Marcus Thuram, with the most successful passes to teammates in this season (six). Furthermore, since November 2023, Dybala leads the Serie A with the most goal involvements (seven, contributing three goals and four assists).

In his absence, attention will turn to Romelu Lukaku. The Belgian striker has scored in each of the four games he started against AC Milan in Serie A (though he didn't find the net in the last two matches, as he came off the bench). Another mention goes to Bryan Cristante: the midfielder, who has played three league games with AC Milan; Cristante scored his first goal in the Serie A against Atalanta on 6 January 2014 and has already found the net against his former side while playing for Atalanta on 23 December 2017. In addition to this precedent, the 1995-born player has been one of the midfielders, alongside Morten Frendrup, to have played every single minute of the first half of the Serie A 2023/24 season (1710 minutes), highlighting his importance in José Mourinho's tactical setup.

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