ROMA v AC MILAN: OPPONENT REVIEW

At 21:00 CEST on Thursday 18 April, the Stadio Olimpico in Rome will stage the most important match of AC Milan's season so far. After their 1-0 home defeat in the first leg, the Rossoneri are aiming to turn things around so they can maintain their pursuit of a trophy that is still missing from the Club's trophy room. In order to continue their Europa League journey, AC Milan need to reverse an unwanted trend: the Diavolo have been knocked out on the last eight occasions where they've suffered a home defeat in the first match of a two-legged elimination tie in one of Europe's main competitions. They last progressed in this manner in the first round of the 1955/56 European Cup: back then, they overcame Saarbrücken after losing the first leg 4-3 on home soil (a 7-5 aggregate victory).

It'll be anything but easy in the Italian capital: the Giallorossi have lost just two of the 22 games they played at the Olimpico in all competitions this season (W16, D4). Out of all the clubs in Serie A, only Juventus (W13, D5, L1) have suffered fewer home defeats than the Giallorossi in 2023/24. Furthermore, Roma have progressed on each of the last six occasions where they've played the return leg at home in a knockout tie in one of the main European competitions. Indeed, they were last eliminated in front of their own fans in 2020/21, when Manchester United beat them 8-5 on aggregate in the Europa League semi-finals (despite the Giallorossi winning the return leg 3-2).

ROMA: DEFENSIVE SOLIDITY AND A BIG AERIAL THREAT
Given their narrow advantage, Roma will be looking to give away as few chances as possible against AC Milan. Notably, across the last two Serie A seasons, the Giallorossi only trail Inter in terms of defensive solidity: since the start of the 2022/23 campaign, Roma's average Expected Goals Against figure stands at 0.91 per game (0.88 for the Nerazzurri). Furthermore, no team has done better than Daniele De Rossi's side in terms of the difference between goals conceded and xG Against (-3.1) in the knockouts of this season's Europa League. However, the Rossoneri certainly have the attacking quality to get back into the tie, as underlined by the fact that they've scored the most goals (twelve) and are leading the way in terms of Expected Goals (10.3) since the knockout round play-offs in February.

As was the case in the first leg, aerial battles could prove decisive. Indeed, Roma have shown themselves to be very effective in the air. Since the start of the 2023/24 campaign, across the top five European divisions, only Bayern Munich (21) and Aston Villa (19) have scored more headed goals than the Giallorossi (18, the same as Fiorentina and Real Madrid) in all competitions. However, despite the goal they shipped at San Siro last Thursday, AC Milan remain one of the four sides who have conceded the least amount in this manner (three, level with Bayern Munich, Clermont and Inter).

ROMA CAN COUNT ON LEADERS: MANCINI IN DEFENCE AND DYBALA IN ATTACK
Gianluca Mancini has been a key figure in Roma's revival, with the Giallorossi unbeaten since the middle of March (W3, D1) and having conceded just once in their last five matches. The defender has recently bagged the winner in two consecutive matches with two headers, first in the derby against Lazio and then in the Europa League against AC Milan. Mancini could become the first Giallorossi player to net in both legs of a European knockout tie since Edin Džeko did so against Manchester United in the 2020/21 Europa League semi-finals.

While Mancini has led from the back and been given licence to attack - especially from dead ball situations - Paulo Dybala continues to create danger for De Rossi's men. Since his arrival at Roma at the start of last season, no Giallorossi player has scored more goals (32) and provided more assists (16) than the Argentinian in all competitions. La Joya has thus directly contributed to 48 goals in a Giallorossi shirt, at least 18 more than any other teammate in the same period, and only needs two more goal involvements to make it to 50. Beyond his numbers in front of goal, Dybala is also a crucial figure because of his ability to establish numerical superiority by beating his opponents (he's completed 77 dribbles since the start of 2022/23, more than any other Roma player). And not to mention all the chances he creates for his teammates (an average of 1.7 per game since his arrival in the capital; only Lorenzo Pellegrini - 1.9 - has done better).

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