NAPOLI v AC MILAN: OPPONENT REVIEW

Napoli v AC Milan is worth its weight in gold. The schedule says it, given that it's the start of April and the decisive period in the league after the international break. The standings reflect this too, with the teams practically on par with each other. The Rossoneri are a a point a head and both sides are well in the fight for the top spots. The Partenopei are the reigning champions, playing at home and have recovered points and important players. They've won four games in a row: 2-1 in Verona and 1-0 in Cagliari and then 2-1 wins at home against Torino and Lecce. Over the past month and a half, only Como have been in better from than Napoli who have forcefully returned to being one of the protagonists in Serie A. With the eliminations in the Champions League and Coppa Italia behind them, and the Supercoppa win in Riyadh in their memories for the season, Conte’s men occupy third place and are in a good position for European qualification, with top spot not so far away. 

HOME FACTOR. NAPOLI HIT, CONTROL AND REACT, BUT CONCEDE MORE
Napoli are in good form. And it's at home where they make the difference: they have the longest ongoing unbeaten home run among teams currently in Europe's top five leagues (25 matches - 18 wins, seven draws). At the Maradona, they haven't lost in Serie A since 8 December 2024. No team has scored more than the Azzurri in the opening 15 minutes of matches in this Serie A season: ten goals (level with Inter and Como). And no side has dropped fewer points than Napoli after taking the lead: just three (level with Parma). These are all connected elements, reflecting both their aggressive approach and their game management. And resilience too: Napoli (along with Milan and Juventus) have never conceded in stoppage time at the end of matches. And when they fall behind? Napoli (12), second only to AC Milan (14), are also among the teams that have recovered the most points from losing positions.

That being said, the Azzurri have been less solid defensively than in the past. They kept a clean sheet in Cagliari, but had conceded in 11 consecutive matches before (18 goals in that span, an average of 1.6 per game). They have the third-best defence in the league, but with a gap that isn't insignificant compared to AC Milan (-7) and Inter (-6). Mistakes and lapses in concentration have played a role, as have absences: Di Lorenzo and Rrahmani have been out for a while and will be unavailable, for example, even though Milinković-Savić has been providing strong performances between the sticks. The group remains solid despite this: no team has had more different goalscorers in the league season: 19, a record for Napoli in a single campaign (surpassing the 17 from 2019/20 and 2022/23 seasons). The overall trajectory remains at a high level: Napoli have earned just two points fewer (62) than at this stage last season, a pace that ultimately led to a Scudetto-winning campaign.

HØJLUND A CERTAINITY, MCTOMINAY AND DE BRUYNE ON THE RISE AND THE SANTOS FACTOR
Højlund is certainly the main attacking threat. He is strong when it comes to running in behind, effective in tight spaces, and a clinical finisher. A powerful player, he was the standout performer in the previous Supercoppa meeting, where the Rossoneri really struggled against him. He has scored ten goals in this league campaign, equalling his best tally across Serie A and the Premier League (set in 2023/24 with Manchester United). Then there's McTominay, with unique and decisive qualities. He returned in mid-March from a tendon issue and secured the win in Cagliari, bringing the number of points that Napoli have gained to eight, thanks to his combined goals and assists (only Paz and Cataldi have done better). The Scot is a complete player, always a threat, and capable of changing a game at any moment.

De Bruyne has also returned after a long absence. He's not at 100%, but he remains a key figure in Conte's system. In general, Napoli have a 71% win rate with the Belgian on the pitch (compared to 46% when he's been absent). He is still looking for his first goal from open-play: so far he has scored three penalties (one in the first meeting at San Siro) and 1 free-kick. It's worth watching out for Politano as well, AC Milan are his favourite opponent (six goals). Other players to keep an eye on include: Spinazzola out wide, as well as Lobotka and Anguissa, who are the brain and the engine of the team. A special mention must go to Santos, a young Brazilian who arrived towards the end of the winter transfer window: quick, technical and an attacking wildcard who has already made a big impact, scoring two goals (against Roma and Torino) in 377 minutes.

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