INTER v AC MILAN: OPPOSITION REVIEW

In Spain, they call it a 'remuntada', a term that reached its peak in the incredible 6-1 victory with which Barcelona eliminated PSG on 8 March 2017, qualifying for the quarter-finals of that Champions League after losing the first leg in Paris 4-0. The English, when referring to football, employ the overblown phrase 'comeback'. And it is no coincidence that in the history of the modern Champions League, it is an English team (Liverpool) that managed the feat of overturning a first leg defeat of two goals or more: in 2018/19, after losing 3-0 at Camp Nou in Barcelona, the Reds won 4-0 at Anfield. Two of those four goals (including the winning fourth) were scored by current AC Milan striker Divock Origi. Stefano Pioli's AC Milan must cling to these narratives in order to hope for the very Italian term 'rimonta' and achieve a sporting miracle that would go down in the history of the sport.

True, analyzing the data and studying the form of the two teams, the Rossoneri's hopes of going to Istanbul to play in the June 10 Final are not so high. Suffice it to say that AC Milan has not won a Derby against Inter with at least a two-goal difference since January 2016 (3-0) and has not managed to beat the "cugini" with at least a two-goal difference away from home since October 2003 (3-1), if of course we exclude the 2005 Champions quarterfinal second leg, when the notorious 3-0 forfeit came. All in all, the Diavolo will face a tough and mature Inter side, which has kept a clean sheet in seven of eleven matches in this Champions League, a record shared with Bayern Munich in the current competition. Data that can only confirm the solidity of a lineup that, as the months have passed, have gained confidence, self-esteem, have found their key men and has grown hand in hand with their coach, that Simone Inzaghi who as a coach has yet to concede a goal against Milan in matches played outside Serie A (eight previous) and only once failed to make it through the round or win the trophy (in the 2017/18 Coppa Italia Semifinal, after a 0-0 double draw).

INTER REBORN: HIGH PRESSING, LOTS OF GOALS AND FEW MISTAKES
Inter will try to reach their sixth Champions League Final and their first since 2009/10 under Jose Mourinho. Should he get through, Simone Inzaghi would be the fifth Italian coach to take an Italian team to a Champions League Final after Fabio Capello with AC Milan (three times), Marcello Lippi with Juventus (four), Carlo Ancelotti with AC Milan (three) and Massimiliano Allegri with Juventus (two). To do so, he will rely on the group that has quite literally shifted gears since April: seven consecutive wins in all competitions, scoring 21 goals (an average of exactly three per match) and conceding three. Inter have never been on the back foot at any time in the knockout stages of this Champions League (3W, 2D) and have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five matches.

The only Italian team that was able to reach the Final of the competition without losing in the knockout stages between the Round of 16, Quarterfinals and Semifinals was Juventus, who won in both 2014/15 and 2016/17. The Nerazzurri are great at pressing high, winning possession and looking for the wide lanes to trigger the attackers. In this Champions League, for example, the Milanese outfit has recovered the ball and started their own attacks in open play at an average distance of 38.5 meters from their own goal: this is the fifth deepest recovery height of all teams in this year's competition and the greatest among teams that have reached the knockout stage.

THE LEFT SIDE AND ROMELU LUKAKU: THE NERAZZURRI FACTORS
We have already spoken about L. Martínez's feeling against AC Milan (seven goals in the derbies). The other man on the cover of Inzaghi's Inter side is undoubtedly Romelu Lukaku, who, with his brace against Sassuolo, has contributed to twelve goals (including goals and assists) since March, a record for a Serie A player considering all competitions. The Belgian's state of form is glaring, as is Inzaghi's insistence on building from the left flank: the chemistry between Dimarco, Bastoni and Barella works wonders and has yielded excellent results, both in the league and in the cup.

Federico Dimarco has provided five assists from open play in this Champions League (including one in the first leg against AC Milan), a record in the 2022/23 edition; it is also the highest number of assists achieved by an Inter player in a single season in the competition (since 2003/04), along with Samuel Eto'o in 2010/11 and Wesley Sneijder in 2009/10. Two names of some significance. Alessandro Bastoni, on the other hand, has taken part in more sequences that have ended in a goal than any other central defender in this Champions League (eight). The 24 year-old is first for Inter in the competition for balls played (617), forward runs with the ball (70) and passes towards the opponent's box (65). Core of the game, technique and personality: these are what one of the two Milanese will need to reach the final on 10 June.

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