MONZA v AC MILAN: OPPONENT REVIEW

Right away after the Europa League, it's time to focus on the league. AC Milan will want to continue to soar in Serie A and the first team in their path will be Monza. The very same Monza owned by the Berlusconi family and Adriano Galliani who collected 29 trophies in 31 years with the Rossoneri (16 national and 13 international). It could never be a game like any other, but once out there on the pitch, the memories should fade to give space to concentration, something that Pioli's side has been able to do in the past three meetings between the sides in the Italian top division. AC Milan is one of only two squads Monza has never won a point against in Serie A (3 defeats of 3, like against Atalanta).

However, we must be careful of the Brianza side's desire for revenge after their start to 2024 was complicated by 2 defeats in 3 league games (1W). They have also, however, shown signs of improvement, especially from a defensive perspective, remaining unbeaten in the last 3 games (1W, 2D). Monza has kept a clean sheet in the last 3 league games and will be aiming to register their longest-ever streak of games without conceding for the first time in Serie A. But motivation isn't lacking at AC Milan, either: with one win, the Rossoneri would reach 55 points in the table after 25 games played in a single Serie A season for the third time in the era of three points for a win. The second came with Stefano Pioli in the dugout: the same points tally as in 2021/22 and less only than the 64 won in 2003/04.

CHARACTERISTICS OF MONZA'S PLAY: SITTING BACK AND BREAKING AWAY
Monza are a side that loves to play out from the back with several passes. It's no coincidence that Raffaele Palladino's side are third in Serie A for the number of open-play sequences of 10 passes or more that end with a shot or a touch in the opposition box (66, behind Napoli on 77 and Inter on 78). This approach of sitting back (at an average of 48.9 meters) is also confirmed by the fact that 52% of the recoveries made by Monza players have been made in their defensive third, the most for this area of the pitch in the current Serie A season.

Despite this defensive attitude, 4.1% of the plays made by Monza's opponents this Serie A campaign have taken place inside the Brianza side's box, only Frosinone (4.3%) has recorded a worse figure. To break the deadlock, AC Milan could try to get the ball into the last 18 yards as often as possible, where the Rossoneri have already scored 45 goals this season (less only than Inter on 50). Pioli's players should also be good at exploiting the spaces left by the Brianzoli down the wings (one of the Rossoneri's strengths), with Monza having allowed the fourth-most successful crosses from open play in the current Serie A (77, less only than Empoli, Sassuolo, and Udinese).

DI GREGORIO'S SAVES AND COLPANI'S QUALITY
It won't be easy for Giroud and his teammates to break through the Monza defence, also as the Rossoneri attack will be faced with the goalkeeper who boasts the highest save percentage this Serie A season:  Michele Di Gregorio (83% – minimum 5 games played). Even more impressive is the number of goals blocked by the Biancorossi defence this season according to the model of Expected Goals on Target Against, or rather, the number of goals that the 1997-born keeper should have conceded given the quality of shots on target: 8.7 (only 17 goals conceded, compared to 25.7 xGoT).

In attack, however, it will be the familiar Andrea Colpani to lead Palladino's side assault on the Rossoneri backline. Born in 1999, the talented player has scored 100% of his goals this season at home. No midfielder has scored more home goals in the top 5 European leagues than the Biancorossi number 28: 7, equal to Jude Bellingham and Douglas Luiz. Moreover, of the midfielders who have scored all of their goals from open play this Serie A season, Andrea Colpani (7/7) is the one who has scored the most. Second in this particular ranking, is Christian Pulisic (6/6), who will want to get back to scoring after a 5-game dry spell in the league, thus squaring up to his direct rival in the game that sees them go head-to-head.

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