AC MILAN v ROMA: OPPONENT REVIEW

Our calendar year campaign will end against the side that we have faced the most during the course of 2024. For the fifth time in the last 12 months, AC Milan and Roma - after official matches and friendlies - will cross paths. Both teams come off the back of pre-Christmas wins (1-0 against Verona for the Rossoneri and a 5-0 win against Parma for the Giallorossi), but, at the same time, both sides are in form and the league standings render this clash on matchday 18 of Serie A, a must-win for both teams. Three points, which would be important in ending the year well and also looking forward to 2025 with confidence.

With the win over the Gialloblù at the Olimpico, Ranieri's side have moved away from the danger zone in the league, but they have been beaten in their last four away trips, in general, Roma have only drawn four matches away from home (the last one coming against Monza on 6 October), a statistic which doesn't improve when taking into account the Europa League campaign. The potential - above all in attack - of the Giallorossi is still notable, given that they have scored 16 goals in their last four home games. 

THREE COACHES, LITTLE CONSISTENCY
Claudio Ranieri's return has undoubtedly brought some enthusiasm back to the Roma side, but after a summer period filled with many changes in the transfer market and the tenures of three different coaches - the ex Cagliari man is the third Coach to take charge after De Rossi and Jurić - it's clear that Roma have lacked consistency in this early phase of the 2024/25 season. One of the constant factors amongst the tenure's of the three coaches has been the use of a back-three: a formation style adopted by De Rossi after the first three league matches, employed by Jurić and then reinstated by Ranieri after a brief period of using a back-four away at Napoli.

With hierarchies still taking shape, it is interesting to note that Roma are still a side who are capable of producing a lot - they have the third-highest number of shots - but with a low rate of efficiency (45% of their shots ended up on target, 14% were converted). The Giallorossi tend to dominate possession and cross a lot but struggle in converting their chances, as their set-piece average is in line with the rest of the league. Unlike AC Milan, who tend to be more prolific in the first half of games, Roma tend to perform better in the second half of matches despite conceding more in this period, as can be seen from the goals conceded to Atalanta and Como in the latter stages of games last month. Therefore, the concept of consistency and the need to maintain this for the entire game, must be highlighted. 

NEW TECHNICAL REFERENCES, BUT DYBALA STAYS IN THE MIDDLE
Compared to the team that we faced in the friendly in Australia, Roma have changed a lot and not just in terms of choice of Coach. The summer transfer market saw the arrival of 11 new players to Trigoria, effectively enough players to field an entire starting team. Amongst these, Ukrainian striker Artem Dovbyk stands out, after being the top scorer in La Liga with Girona. He is currently Roma's top scorer with nine goals in all competitions. Two other new faces who are playing a central role for Ranieri include the young Frenchman Manu Koné and the experienced centre back Mats Hummels, who joined in the summer on a free transfer.

After all the discussion surrounding new arrivals - there should be mention of the ex-AC Milan player Alexis Saelemaekers, who has scored in two of the last three Serie A matches - even this greatly changed Roma side still follows the lead of Paulo Dybala. The World-Cup winning Argentinian isn't having his best season, even though his goals always lead to wins for Roma, peaking with a standout performance against Parma. Dybala has a good record against AC Milan, given that he is the one current Serie A player to have scored the most goals against the Rossoneri in Serie A. However, he has not scored against AC Milan at San Siro for over a decade. Breaking that drought and building on this built up momentum will be key for the Giallorossi. 

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