GENOA v AC MILAN: THE BRIEFING

October continues and the next challenge in the Rossoneri calendar is an away fixture in front of a heated and passionate crowd. Following Dortmund's yellow wall, in fact, AC Milan will have to face newly-promoted Genoa and a Stadio Luigi Ferraris ready to relentlessly support Alberto Gilardino's team. Our 8th Serie A fixture precedes the second international break of the season, so collecting all three points would give us a strong tailwind going into the break in first place. We approach this meeting by taking a look at three key points of the upcoming Genoa v AC Milan match in our Briefing.

FINISHING THE JOB
There are several points in common between the two teams when looking at the distribution of goals scored and conceded in the first seven matches. Gilardino and Pioli's teams stand out for their goal-scoring prowess in the middle half-hour of the game, in which they were often able to capitalise on their performances at the start of matches. The Rossoneri's nine goals are the most in Serie A, whilst Genoa are joint-second in this figure with five. On the contrary, both the Grifone and the Diavolo appear more vulnerable in the final stages of the match. The Grifone have a particularly negative record in the final fifteen minutes of matches (five of the last seven they have conceded came in the last quarter of an hour, dropping six points). The key to this match will be to 'finish strong', finishing the match in the best possible way: to this end, it will be crucial to make the most of our resources and manage the game wisely, betting on both teams' key players - Guðmundsson and Leão stand out, the expected stars at the Ferraris, as well as those who will come on in the second half. 

ROTATIONS AND SUBSTITUTES
Picking up on the previous point, it is important to emphasise that this evening in Genoa will the seventh match in three weeks for Pioli's boys. Their condition and performance has improved thanks to the excellent contributions of those who had fewer minutes in the first outings of the season. Players like Sportiello, Florenzi, Adli, Musah and Okafor, in fact, have come to the fore recently, helping the Rossonero cause cope with injuries and absences: in this sense, the match in Marassi will be a final push before a much-needed break, especially considering the matches that await Pioli's team upon their return from the international break (Juventus, PSG and Napoli in quick succession). Our opponents have a fairly strong squad for a newly-promoted team, but they haven't made much use of their ranks or substitutes. Given the absences of Strootman and Badelj (Retegui is a doubt), the Rossoneri will have to make the most of this advantage against a team that has performed very well against big teams so far: 7 points collected against Lazio, Napoli and Roma.

SEIZING MOMENTS
In the first seven matches, AC Milan have stood out for their efficiency in building up from the back and are currently amongst the best in the league in terms of percentages, but it is Genoa, in fact, who head these rankings (21% for the Rossoblù, 18% for the Rossoneri). Considering the styles of the two teams, with the hosts adopting a more wait-and-see approach whilst AC Milan are more used to grinding out possession and dribbling in search of gaps in the opponent's defence, it will be crucial to make the most of every goalscoring opportunity. Genoa have a significant differential between goals scored and expected goals (5.6 more goals scored than expected, only Fiorentina have a higher differential), and they have shown that they know how to make the most of their chances, as shown in the aforementioned matches against the big teams. AC Milan have reaped less than they have sowed, with six goals scored in the last 300' minutes of play between the league and Champions League: seizing the moment could be the key to winning.

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